The Nigerian economy since the 1970s has been a mono-economy which relies heavily on oil as its main source of foreign exchange earnings. The study examined the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth of Nigeria using time series data for the period 1986-2020. This study was necessary as it offered the opportunity to evaluate Non-Oil Export between the periods which cut across both the military and civilian dispensation in Nigeria. Data for the study were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin as well as the National Bureau of Statistics and analyzed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression technique. The 2021 Non-Oil Export Statistical Report from Nigerian Export Promotion Council was also used to ascertain growth in the sector.   The study used agricultural exports and manufacturing exports as the independent variables and real gross domestic product as the dependent variable. Empirical results of the study revealed that agricultural exports had a positive and insignificant impact on economic growth of Nigeria while manufacturing exports exerted a positive and significant impact on economic growth of Nigeria for the period studied. The study thus recommended the development of the capital base of the non-oil sector both in depth and capacity through the implementation of carefully thought-out initiative of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) of both the agricultural and manufacturing sectors of the economy. Proper funding and Capacity building of the agencies of government with the responsibilities of sensitisation and motivation of Export promotion programme in the country should be advocated.  

Keywords: Agricultural exports, Economic Growth, Manufacturing Export, Non-Oil Export.

INTRODUCTION

Nigerian economy since 1970s has been a mono-economy relying heavily on oil as its major source of foreign exchange earnings. The implication is that the dynamics of the economy is at the whims and caprices of the price of oil, which for the most part, has been volatile (Awoke, Iwuoha and Awoke, 2019). The major fallout of this fragile structure of the Nigerian economy is a situation where the economy has been growing without creating jobs and reducing poverty (Algebrin, 2020). The on-hand explanation to this economic paradox is that the oil sector that produces about 90% of export earnings are in the hands of less than one percent of the Nigerian population dominated by expatriates and members of the political class who control production and the proceeds respectively. Worse still, the sector is disconnected from other tiers and sectors of the economy and thus offers little or no linkage and multiplier effect to the economy as a whole.

Proponents of this increased proportion of non-oil export argue that the non-oil trade has great potentials to propel Nigerian economy to the desired growth and development. For instance, Adenugba (2013), maintained that the value chain approach to agriculture has the potentials to open up the economy and generate various activities which are capable of creating jobs and enhancing industrialization and thus makes the non-oil sub-sector to hold the aces for future Nigerian sustainable economic growth. Every country in the world strives to achieve high economic growth and development. Depending on the policies and strategies put in place by one country or the other, the goal remains the same for all to sustain it. According to Raheem (2016), exports now constitute important national goal. It has been argued that the economic development of any nation has some strong relationship with the export performance of the country. Thus, countries that adopt robust export policies can move their economies to a higher level of economic growth and development. Many countries today are involved in the exportation of certain goods and services and the purpose is not only to acquire foreign exchange reserves but also to gain from the other benefits that arise from export, which improves balance of payment position, creates employment and development of export-oriented industries in the manufacturing sector and improves government revenue through taxes, levies and tariffs. These benefits will eventually transform into better living condition for the nationals (Igwe, Edeh and Ukpere, 2015).

Prior to the discovery of oil in Nigeria, the economy depended on the exportation of agricultural commodities. The discovery of oil gave Nigeria new opportunities to expand the economy. As more revenues flowed from the production of oil, Nigeria began the importation of raw materials from other countries, thus improving trade with the rest of the world. The revenue derived led to the growth of the industrial sector, which hitherto was characterized by inactivity due to low demand for "Made in Nigeria" goods. The oil boom of the Seventies led to import substitution, industrialization and the establishment of new firms and the foreign oil companies increased job creation, which lowered the unemployment level. The job opportunities, concentrated in the major urban centers, induced rural dwellers to abandon the low-paying and backbreaking land cultivation to migrate to urban areas for less tedious, yet high paying jobs (Hicks,1932).

A rewarding export drive can turn a hitherto underdeveloped economy into a prosperous economy. Presently, through the activities of some agencies of the government like the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), there has been a remarkable improvement in non-oil export to other countries of the world. But more effort is needed to realize the abundant potentials in this sector. Based on this backdrop, this study examines the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth of Nigeria.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Nigeria is yet to attain the rank of a developed economy due to lack of structural changes among other factors. It was observed that lack of economic progress and economic diversification have caused the economy to rely heavily on crude oil revenues and as the major export commodity in the economy (Musa, Badawi and Farouq, 2020). One major problem with the over reliance on oil export is the fact that its prices fluctuated, it is therefore volatile.  This means that the dynamics of the Nigerian economy is at whims and caprices of the prices of oil (Enoma and Mustafa. 2011). Therefore, any structural distortion in the foreign economics capable of causing change in oil prices directly affects Nigerian economy. A classic example is what is presently happening to the Nigerian economy characterized by a fall in exchange earning a fall in GDP, depletion of external reserve scarcity of foreign exchange, oil theft and high cost of goods (inflation) as we are also a heavily import dependent economy. This was all as a result of sudden fall of international oil price.

There is need to reposition the economy in a way that will enhance the simultaneous growth of all sectors of the economy like agriculture and industrial sectors etc., for local consumption and export thereby embracing an approach that will ensure a balanced economy.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth of Nigeria. The specific objectives are;

1. To assess the impact of agricultural export on economic growth in Nigeria
2. To evaluate the impact of manufacturing export on economic growth in Nigeria.
3. To assess the contributions of Nigerian non-oil Export to other countries.

LITERATURE REVIEW

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Exports as a tool for Economic Development and Growth

Exportation can be described as very important in a country's quest to enhance its revenue base and move the economy on the path of growth and economic progress. This is what is described in economic literature as export-led growth. As identified by Algebrin (2020), export provides an impetus for growth and is thus a necessary catalyst for the overall development of an economy. Being an important participant in foreign trade, developing countries can generate sufficient foreign capital inflow to drive their growth process. As foreign earnings increase due to export expansion, domestic production capacity tends to expand, employment level increases, unemployment falls and aggregate demand is boosted and domestic investment expands further (Todaro and Smith, 2003). Export expansion also helps to maintain a favorable trade balance, consequently leading to a favorable balance of payment position, especially for a typical developing country.

Jhingan (2007) highlights that economic development implies both more output and changes in the technical and in situational arrangement by which it is produced and distributed. It is wider concept than economic growth. It is related to qualitative changes in economic wants, goods, incentives, institutions, productivity and knowledge or the entire upward movement of the entire social system. The non-oil sector in Nigeria is intended to fulfill this national objective which invariably leads to economic development and growth.

Concept of Non-Oil Sector in Nigeria

Nigeria is yet to attain the ranks of a developed economy due to lack of structural change, among other factors. Also, it was observed that a factor crucial to this lack of economic progress is the lack of economic diversity which has caused the economy to rely heavily on crude oil for revenues and as the major export commodity in the economy (Onodugo et al, 2013). Prior to the 1970s, Nigeria's exports were predominantly non-oil commodities with agricultural commodities accounting for the lion share. However, in the 1970s, when the price of crude oil in the international market sky rocketed, the shares of non-oil exports began falling and have remained low ever since. This is majorly due to the money-spinning nature of oil exports which makes it more profitable to export oil and less profitable to export non-oil commodities (Raheem, 2016). This has caused a rather heavy dependence on the oil sector and the proceeds from the exportation of crude oil.

Prior to independence in 1960, the Nigerian non-oil sector was dominated by agriculture and trade. At this time, agriculture accounted for over 50 percent of gross domestic product and represented bulk of export revenue through cocoa, rubber, palm produce groundnut and cotton etc. (Dumaka, 2008). With these exports in their raw forms, manufacturing began to show its presence in the first- decade after independence. Industries were established to produce for the large domestic market through the import substitution policy. However, with the discovery of crude oil in 1956, coupled with the oil boom of the early 1970s attention was totally shifted away from other sources of foreign exchange earnings i.e. the export of traditional agricultural products (Akinlo and Adejumo, 2014).

From Table 1 below, it is obvious that there is array of products Nigeria can harness in order to favorably compete with the Asian Tigers such a South Korea, Taiwan. Hong Kong etc. whose non-oil export and promotional effect have taken dip-root in their economic management.

Consequently, motivated by the unpalatable trend as oil prices and revenue began to dwindle in the 1980s, the need to diversify the foreign earnings of the country from the mono-product (crude oil) became paramount, as the government embarked on various measurers to address these issues (Oloh, 2004).

EXPORT PROMOTION STRATEGIES IN NIGERIA

As early as the 1970s, the government saw the need to diversify its export base and therefore established various agencies and put various policies in place .to improve the economic situation, the country by increasing the share of non-oil products total exports. In this section, some of these policies were discussed (Table 1):

THE NIGERIAN EXPORT PROMOTION COUNCIL

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) was established in 1976. According to Abebefe (1995) its mandates are to:

1. Spearhead national effort in export development and promotion by generating ideas, suggestions and measures designed to advance the course of Nigeria's export trade.
2. Advise and assist the government in the identification of export-oriented industries and to help stimulate the growth of non-traditional exports from Nigeria.
3. Assist the government in the creation of the necessary infrastructures such as export incentives and trade information services.

THE   EXPORT   INCENTIVES   AND   MISCELLANEOUS   PROVISIONS DECREE NO. 18 OF 1986.

This decree was promulgated on the 11^th of July, 1986 and it led to the establishment of institutions and programmes all geared towards the promotion of exports, particularly non-oil exports. The decree provided for the establishment of three funds; Export Development. Fund, Export Expansion Grant Fund and Export Adjustment Scheme Fund (CBN, 2010).

THE NIGERIAN EXPORT-IMPORT (NEXIM) BANK

NEXIM was established in 1991 as an export credit agency with the broad objective of attaining overall export growth: as well as structural balance and diversifying the composition and destination of Nigerian Exports. The bank provides 3 main services which are; Credit, Risk- Bearing and Trade Information and Export Advisory Services.

EXPORT PROCESSING ZONES (EPZ).        

This was established by the Decree no. 34 of 1991. An Export Processing Zone (EPZ) is a special enclave outside a nation's normal custom barriers where foreign and domestic firms may manufacture or assemble goods for export without being subjected to the normal customs duties on imported raw materials and finished products present in that economy; firms operating within the zone are normally exempted from industrial regulation applying within the domestic economy, especially with regards to foreign ownership of firms, repatriation of profits, employments of nationals, access of foreign exchange, etc. (Afeikhana, 1996).

REVIEW SO FAR BY NIGERIAN EXPORT PROMOTION COUNCIL

• Nigeria exported non-oil products valued US$1,736.723 million in 2017 which gave a rise of 44.34% over 2016 figure of US$1,203.179. There was also a 6.90% rise over 2015 performance put at US$1,624.6 10. Non-oil export performance reached its peak in 2017 recording US$ 2.848 billion.

2. The rise has been attributed to a number of factors such as:

• NEPC new strategies put in place and reinvigorating export promotion activities such as "ZERO TO EXPORT" programme, continuous sensitization of stakeholders using Export Clinic forum and other export awareness seminars/workshops.
• Renewed confidence of exporters of non-oil products on implementation of new basket of incentives.
• Synergy amongst government agencies with responsibilities to promote export on one hand and with exporters on the other hand.

Nigeria's non-oil products were exported to 108 countries. Netherlands and Europe took the highest import among the countries and regions respectively.

These are as shown below (Figure 1):

NIGERIA NON-OIL EXPORT TO ECOWAS REGION

Thirteen member countries of ECOWAS (with exception of Cape Verde) imported Nigerian products in 2017. Products worth US$365.007 million were imported. The import was30/28% improvement over the sub-regions' import of US$280.162 recorded in 2016. ECOWAS sub-region imported 21.02% of Nigeria's total non-oil export value.

Three (3) of the member states: Ghana, Cote D'lvoire and Togo made it to the Top-Ten importers of Nigerian products (Figure 2).

NIGERIAN NON-OIL PRODUCTS EXPORTED IN 2017.

During the period of review, one hundred and fifty (150) main products were exported. Cocoa Bean was the most exported commodity in terms of value. Its export value was US$ 191.750 million. Export of cocoa beans was followed by that Naphthalene which was US$ 185.654 million and on the third position was export of Fertilizer/Urea. The table below gives a rundown of the top ten products exported from 2017-2022.

2021 NON-OIL EXPORT STATISTICS REPORT

Nigeria non-oil products exported in year 2021 as reported by Non-oil Export Pre-shipment Inspection Agents (PIAs) was US$3.445 billion. This figure was higher than the figure (US$ 2.210 billion) reported in year 2020 by US$1.235 billion, an increase of 55.88%. The year 2020 figure also gave a positive growth of 35.83% when compared with the value recorded for the year 2019.

2. The table and chart below show the Quarterly figures as recorded by the Pre-shipment Inspection Agents (PlAs) as inspected in the year 2021.
3. From the table, and chart above, the non-oil export has been on the increase for the past six years except in year 2019 when it decreased slightly by 3.27% and regained its momentum in 2020 with an 18% growth.

Products exported:

4. Over 60 non-oil products were exported during the period. Non-traditional products like Neern oil, onions, rice and maize seeds, 'plumpy' nut were exported (Figure 3).

Nigerian top ten non-oil exported in 2021 (Figure 4).

Destination of Nigerian non-oil export in 2021

About one hundred and thirty (130) countries cut across five (5) continents imported Nigerian non-oil products in 2021. The table below shows export ranking by countries (Figure 5).

NB: No African country in top 10

Netherlands relegated from traditional 1^st position to 3^rd position.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The following theories are relevant for this study:

Theory of Absolute Advantage

This theory was propounded by Adam Smith in his 1776 publication,” An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”. This theory uses a two by two-by-two models i.e. there are two countries involved in the trading of two commodities and using only two factors of production; labor and capital. The theory says that a country should export products in which it is more productive than other countries: that is, goods for which it can produce more output per unit of input than others can (i.e. in which it has an absolute advantage) while importing those goods where it is less productive than other countries (i.e. in which it has an absolute disadvantage) (Dunn Jr. and Mutti, 2004).

Absolute advantage means the ability of a country to produce a larger quantity of a good with the same number of resources as another country. The country's absolute advantage may be due to the nature of its resources or to its production skills (Hoag and Hoag, 2006). According to Smith, each nation benefits by specializing in the production of the good that it produces at a lower cost than the other nation, while importing the goods that it produces at a higher cost. The theory failed to answer this question satisfactorily and that gave rise to Rice's theory of Comparative Advantage.

Theory of Comparative Advantage

This theory was put forward by David Ricardo in 1817 because he was dissatisfied with the looseness in Smith's theory (Barbaugh, 2004). According to Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage, even if a nation has an absolute cost disadvantage in the production of both goods, there still exists a basis for mutually beneficial trade. The less efficient nation should specialize in the production and exportation of the good in which it is relatively less inefficient (where its absolute disadvantage is least) while the more efficient nation should specialize in the production and exportation of the good in which it is relatively more efficient (where its absolute advantage is greatest). This theory proved to be better than Smith's absolute advantage theory because it is possible for a nation as to have an absolute advantage in anything but it is not possible for one nation to have a comparative advantage in everything and the other nation to have a comparative advantage in nothing. That is because comparative advantage depends on relative costs (Carbaugh, 2004).

EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK

Aljebrin (2020), empirically estimated the critical parameters of non-oil export impact on non-oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia for the period 1988-2014 by using ordinary least squares and error correction model approach. The empirical results obtained showed that, in both short-run and long-run, there was positive and significant relationship between the non-oil economic growth and non-oil exports. There was also positive and significant relationship between non-oil economic growth and capital in both long-run and short-run. On the other hand, there was positive and significant relationship between non-oil economic growth and labour in the long run but positive and insignificant in the short-run.

Musa, Badawi and Farouq (2020), empirically addressed the impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria the method used in this study was Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL), to capture both the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship. Augmented dickey fuller of unit root test was used to avoid the error of accepting the null hypothesis of unit root test when it had been rejected. Annual time series data were obtained and analyzed. The finding of the study revealed that, there was a positive and significant relationship between non-oil export and economic growth in Nigeria. The other finding revealed a long run relationship between agricultural output and economic growth in Nigeria.

Awoke, Iwuoha and Awoke (2019), investigated the impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria using the auto regressive distributive lag method (ARDL) for both long-term and short-term relationships. Data on real gross domestic product, exchange rate, inflation, non-oil export and trade openness for the period 1981-2017 were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Statistical Bulletin, 2017. The ARDL results revealed that all the variables tend to move together in the long-run. However, the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria was not significant enough to take the country to an enviable level within the period under the study. It also indicated that all variables considered possess inherent capacity to contribute to the growth of non-oil export if effectively, efficiently and adequately managed. Therefore, it was recommended that Government should reduce the current exchange rate by 3%. Government should strengthen the current policy on non-oil export to ensure proper implementation and monitoring.

Nwodo and Asogwa (2017), investigated effect of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly time series data from 1986-2014. The study applied Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The results revealed positive impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria in the short-run and long-run.

However, the results recorded negative effect of the interaction of trade. Consequently, the study recommended that government get the fundamentals right in the economy first that will boost non-oil sector before opening the economy for trade.

Kawai (2017), investigated the specific impact of the non- oil exports to the growth of Nigerian economy using annual data between 1980-to-2016. The study adopted the Phillip Peron (PP), the Engel Granger Model (EGM) for co-integration were employed in its paralysis. Findings revealed strong evidence of co-integration relationship of non-oil exports in influencing rate of change in the level of economic growth in Nigeria. The study, apart from empirically providing information that has failed to give backing to recent claims of non-oil exports led growth in Nigeria, has also make some recommendations which include government should re-emphasized and strengthen industrial revolution plan with a clear strategy to develop sectoral plan so that the planned should be working sector by sector for better outcome of these sectors. Also, government should invest in non-oil sector in other to diversify the economy from monoculture economy to a multicultural economy and creating economic environment which will help boost the activity of non-oil export sector.

Raheem (2016), investigated the role of oil and non-oil exports on the Nigerian economy over the period of 1981 to 2015. The ADF and PP unit root test, Johansen Co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition (VD) were used in the analysis of the study. The Co-integration test indicates that GDP, Oil and Non-oil exports were Co-integrated. The Granger causality test indicates short run unidirectional causality running from oil export to GDP. There were also bidirectional long-run causality relationship between oil export and GDP, and unidirectional long-run causality running from non-oil export to GDP. The study result indicated that oil exports have inverse relationship with economic growth while non-oil exports have positive relationship.

Yifru (2015), assessed impact agricultural exports on economic growth of Ethiopia. The analysis was carried out using co-integration model, error correction model and Granger causality model. The findings showed that export value of coffee and oilseeds had positive and significant relationship with economic productivity. On the other hand, export of pulses had inverse and insignificant effect on economic growth in short-run but positive and insignificant in the long-run. On the other hand, there was two -way relationship between coffee export, oilseed export and economic growth while one way causality was found between pulses export and economic growth. Based on the findings, it was recommended that policies aimed at driving productivity and quality of these cash crops be implemented.

The study by Okafor, Akandu and Ike (2016), was aimed at devising a viable non-oil export-led growth policy from 1980 to 2014 using robust factor analytic model. Results indicated that there was positive significant relationship between non-oil export and growth in Nigeria which was solely attributable to the influence of foreign direct investment and trade liberalization. Moreover, the study revealed that the active variables in the constellation of foreign direct investment and trade liberalization provided the theoretical constructs for a new nonoil export-led growth policy.

Again, Uremadu, Onyele and Ariwa (2016) analyzed impact of selected agricultural exports on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 to 2014. The results showed that aggregate agricultural exports had positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommended policy options such as export financing, value addition to cocoa beans being exported, and favorable foreign exchange policies to promote production in agriculture and industrial sector for proper diversification of Nigerian economy.

Adewale, Ayo and Abayomi (2016), investigated the impact of non-oil export on Nigerian economy. The data used were secondary source and the period of analysis covered 1970 - 2014. The study employed OLS technique and annual time series data of variables were used and in order to know the impact of non-oil export on economic growth. The result showed that non-oil export exerted significant impact on GDP, but the average impact of such impact was negative. This suggested that GDP significantly increases due to a unit increase in non-oil export. Both openness and exchange rate individually exerted positive impact on GDP over the period under review, however, that of openness does not indicate significant impact. This emphasizes the need to diversify Nigerian economy from its dependency on oil through the promotion of non-oil exports as a major source of foreign exchange earnings.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Ex-post facto research design was adopted in obtaining, analyzing and interpreting data relating to the objectives of this study. By definition, ex-post facto study or after-the-fact research is a category of research design in which the investigation starts after the fact had occurred without interference from the researcher.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

The regression results were presented below:

Regression results

The coefficients of the two non-oil oil exports used for this study were positive. The coefficients of agricultural export (AGRICEX) and manufacturing export (MANUEX) showed that real gross domestic product of Nigeria increased by 0.337460 and 0.111158 due to an increase in AGRICEX and MANUEX, respectively. The positive coefficient of the constant term (C) indicates that holding the independent variables (AGRICEX and MANUEX) constant, RGDP will be increasing.

The result also showed that the overall model is significant, given the F-statistics probability value of 68.33108 and its probability value of 0.000. This implies that the Adjusted R-squared value of 85% is significantly different from zero. Thus, the regression model is a good- fit. The Durbin Watson (DW) Statistics of 2.158901 revealed that there is no presence of serial auto-correlation between successive error terms since the DW statistics is not significantly greater than the benchmark of 2.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

The major findings from the empirical analysis of non-oil exports on economic growth of Nigeria were summarized as follows:

• It was found that agricultural exports have positive and insignificant impact on economic growth of Nigeria.
• Also, there was a positive and significant impact of manufacturing exports on economic growth of Nigeria.

There is an appreciable increasing in non-oil export performance of the country based on the activities of government agencies like Nigerian Export Promotion Council and others.

The annual time series data used for the study were presented as shown (Table 2).

CONCLUSION

This study examined the impact of non-oil export trade on economic growth in Nigeria. In the process of achieving this objective, the impacts of agricultural exports and manufacturing exports on economic growth of Nigeria were examined. Findings showed that agricultural exports were not a significant determinant of economic growth probably due to low agricultural output in Nigeria. Also, manufacturing exports was found to have exerted positive and significant impact on economic growth of Nigeria. Subsequently, there has been an appreciable development in the Nigerian Non-oil export in recent time.

RECOMMENDATIONS

From the data analysis, the following recommendations were made:

• The government should encourage increase in participation in agricultural activities to increase total output. More so, adding value to our primary export commodities such as agricultural products is important because it will not only command higher export prices but will enhance patronage at the international market.
• This study recommends the development of the capital base of the non-oil sector both in depth and capacity through the implementation of carefully thought-out initiative of Public Private Partnership (PPP) of the manufacturing sector of the economy. PPP will be the tonic needed to stimulate growth and development in the key sectors and sub-sectors like power, mines and agriculture, as well as the transport sector.
• Proper funding and Capacity building of the agencies of government with the responsibilities of sensitisation and motivation of Export promotion programme in the country should be advocated

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